Nanaimo Ladysmith Public Schools’ enrolment will continue on an upward trajectory the next three years, spurred by high school students, district officials project.
The 2023-24 year features a smaller group of 863 Grade 12 students giving way to an estimated influx of 1,191 Grade 8 students in 2024-25, stated a staff report. Mark Walsh, district secretary-treasurer, detailed the numbers at a business committee meeting Feb. 14.
“Overall, we’re looking at slight declines in some areas, but mainly our secondaries are seeing the demographic bubble of a large elementary cohort coming through the system,” he said. “Next year Wellington and Dover Bay are going to, I believe, be at all-time highs. [Nanaimo District], ironically, will slow just a little bit, but continue to be significantly at capacity.”
Enrolment totalled close to 15,192 full-time students in 2023-24, with 15,425 estimated for 2024-25, 15,491 for 2025-26 and 15,603 for 2026-27. Of that, this year’s 5,450 high school student total is estimated to grow to 5,706 for 2024-25, 5,828 in 2025-26 and 5,949 in 2026-27.
Trustee Tania Brzovic inquired about the B.C. government capping international student numbers, and Walsh said it related to university only. The district stands to benefit from students from abroad, he said.
As an example, Walsh pointed to the Rutherford Elementary’s closure in 2018, when a demographic uptick, followed by a downward slope, was predicted.
“You still see that in the kindergarten population largely; not a lot of domestic kids being produced as compared to previous years,” said Walsh. “If you look at our [2023-24 Grade 9 cohort], 1,140 kids and you look at our K, 956. If you make that happen over a number of years, we’re going to be declining.”
The secretary-treasurer said the school district is seeing “immigration fill in some of those gaps that might exist” in elementary schools, with large student numbers coming for high school.
“This is the biggest year for us on projection, but then you look at our secondaries, in particularly 2026-27, it’s going to continue to be a significant issue with respect to capacity,” he said. “We have some desires to fix that at NDSS, we have some requests at Wellington to be explored.”
